Outputs

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Outputs of the project
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METHODOLOGY FOR CASCADING EFFECTS IN CRISIS


SnowBall consists in a deep analysis of cascading effects and development of methods to anticipate them; and in a Decision Support System able to display current crisis monitoring and results of simulated decisions integrating cascading effects, thanks to a data collection system, an Events Log Database, Simulators and a Dashboard. SnowBall innovates in its modular approach to crises, its modelling techniques, its agent-supported coupled grid simulations, its generic Events Log Database and tools to follow public behaviour (Emergency Alert, social networks, mobile application).

GUIDELINES FOR BETTER APPREHENDING OF CASCADING EFFECTS


The scope of the theoretical model is to define a methodological framework to address hazard/impact assessments of cascading effect scenarios based on the understanding of dependencies and interactions between different hazards and the influence of exposure and vulnerability of the elements at risk on the base of the cumulative damage due to the sequence of events, both propagation across service networks and critical infrastructures. The proposed methodology aims at defining through probabilistic approaches potential cascading effects time-history, integrating consolidated methods such as Event trees analyses, Bayesian methods and Expert elicitation to address the specific issues that characterise the simulation of cascading effects scenarios.

Full information on the results are available in the deliverables section (D3.4 & D3.5, both available soon).

DELIVERABLES


Consortium is under the process of releasing the following deliverables in their public format. Come back at the end of May to access them all.

D2.1 Specifications of the whole system report
D2.2 Needs analysis of end-users report
D2.8 Global integrated solution
D2.9 Report on testing and efficiency of the solution and Formal approval
D3.1 Report on the crisis scenario analysis and the refinement of simulation scenarios
D3.2 Report on the vulnerability models and the elementary crisis brick approach
D3.3 Theoretical model for the cascading effects (version
D3.4 Theoretical model for the cascading effects (version
D3.5 Report on the results of the study on human behaviour in cascading crisis situations (* with modifications of the empirical part which EMAUG would make, as well as with the consent of all partners involved)
D4.3 Web portal for manual inputs
D4.4 Data layers and thesaurus
D4.6 Events log Database (version 2)
D4.7 Action planning manager
D5.1 Engineering grid models and Deterministic grid interfaces
D5.2 Agent behaviour models
D5.3 Models for Damages of nodes in networks
D6.2 Decision Algorithm (version 2)
D6.3 Displays for crisis monitoring, probabilistic approach
D6.6 Graphic workflow
D6.7 Post-crisis reporting module
D7.1 Report on past crisis analysis
D7.2 Report on Simulation
D8.1 Website
D8.2 Report on the Dissemination campaign
D8.3 User guide for end-users on how to better take into consideration cascading effects in crisis management

SCIENTIFIC ARTICLES


Palumbo, E., Osella, M., Rizzo, G., Ferro, E., Zuccaro, G., Leone, M., De Gregorio, D. (2016, under publication).
SnowBall DSS: an ensemble Multi-Criteria Decision Support System encompassing cascading effects for disaster management.
Proceedings of the EWG-DSS International Conference on Decision Support System Technology, ICDSST 2016.

Zuccaro, D. De Gregorio, M. F. Leone. Theoretical model for cascading effects analyses
Special issue of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Understanding and mitigating cascading crises in the global interconnected system (Elsevier), 2018.

Zuccaro, D. De Gregorio, M. F. Leone. Analyses of cascading effects induced by volcanic eruptions in Santorini Island.
Special issue of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Understanding and mitigating cascading crises in the global interconnected system (Elsevier), 2018.

DEMONSTRATIONS


The partners have used the SnowBall tools in three different situations: storm in Finland caused flooding in Poland and volcanic eruption in Greece. These simulations allowed two things, to assess the efficiency of the tool in simulating cascading effects, and the accuracy of the simulation outcomes and to assess the ability of authorities and first responders to minimize cascading effects, and the impact of a crisis. This report on Simulations is divided in two parts, first part A describes outcome of the pilot cases in Finland, Poland and Greece. The second part B describes in detail the reference scenario in Greece (Santorini), showing the theoretical model for pilot application of SnowBall.